Croydon Cyclone: Hole One...

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TheGroover
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Croydon Cyclone: Hole One...

Post by TheGroover » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:16 pm

I gathered the stats for the first hole at Croydon Cyclone.

Click here to see the score distribution.

Overall, there's a double peak; one at par (3) and one at triple-bogey (6). In the Open, the spread was very very even - there were 11 birdies, 12 pars, 12 5s and 12 6s. In the Int Ams, only 20% of scores were par or birdie. That's very low.

What does this tell us? Personally, it proves to me that too many players stand at a tee and think they have the ability to hit a small target without considering the consequences. This data proves that perceived ability is generally misplaced. Nobody forces you to shoot for the island.

Too many people do not consider the cost of missing. If you got, say, a 2, 6, 6 that means you attempted to hit the target 5 times and only managed to get it once. One out of five? Don't come to me saying that you were unlucky. A 20% success rate is not bad luck or punishment for being an Open player, it's bad shot selection.

That same 2,6,6 represents a total of 14 shots for a par of 9. If you had laid up and got 3,3,3 for the tournament, those 5 saved strokes would have probably moved yourself up a place or two. When you stand on a tee, you should be not be getting excited about the potential glory of a 2. You should be thinking about the safest way to maintain a good score card for 3 rounds.

Conclusion? A great hole. It exposes the false belief that we can always make every shot. No course designer is obliged to provide you with a hole that can be automatically deuced.

I'd recommend Croydon keep the hole exactly the same next year, and we'll see what the stats are then to see if anyone learns a lesson from the weekend.
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LostMeow
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Post by LostMeow » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:30 pm

You're assuming that any OBs were caused by aiming for the far island though.... :oops:
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Post by TheGroover » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:36 pm

LostMeow wrote:You're assuming that any OBs were caused by aiming for the far island though.... :oops:
Ahem, yes. I too managed a double-OB 6 on the second round by missing the layup twice. :oops:

I went 3-6-3 for the tournament.
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Post by dunc » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:20 pm

Not there, so difficult to really comment...... but I feel the retee maybe a touch too harsh....

Imaginary group..... just a pairing..... of no discernable difference in skill level

Player 1 - goes for the 2, lands just inside the circle and is good to go, he get's his two

Player 2 - goes for the 2, lands his disc within 1 ft of player 1's disc but is OB... then decides to lay up and hop accross, he gets a 5


I'm all for making things more challenging but in this scenario, the two throws were very similar, one was a foot in, the other a foot out....... should a foot's difference cost you three shot's? or 30 PDGA ratings points on your round? Answer, NO!

Risk / Reward Rating for this whole

You might risk a 2
You could take an easy three
You are extremely unlikely to get a 4
You might get a five if you went for the 2
you might even get a 6 if you went for the two

Answer, low reward & big risk = take the lay up three, move on.....

The punishment for a missed drive is just too harsh.... yes you can say that a lot of people went for it in the tournament and missed knowing the situation and the penalty but that doesn't mean it is a well designed hole! Just poor decision making!!

The design means you have to play two little up shots to get a par 3 and in my opinion that's not a great hole......
Last edited by dunc on Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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West
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Post by West » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:21 pm

Hit the island on the 2nd drive both times on the Saturday (both ob 4) ... thought it would be rude if I didn't join the double ob 6 club on Sunday tho ;)
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Post by ultiali » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:35 pm

Said this on the previous thread but my suggested change would be to not make it a retee but move the drop zone back 10 yards.

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Post by rhatton1 » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:08 pm

What I would love to see - unfortunately not possible - would be how many people went for the layup and missed. Think the numbers here were scarily high. Each round I played at least one person missed the attempted layup. When I went for it twice and missed it twice and got a 6 I felt a lot better than the first attempt at the hole where i missed the layup twice, and then went OB from the drop zone for a 7 (I made the putt though, so was delighted with that....)

Lets have a 'fess up, who missed a layup attempt on the weekend?

I missed 2 !

I like Ali's plan of taking the drop zone back and going straight there from the first miss. Then you can make an OB 4 or even 3, but there is still a good chance that you will go OB again and take the 6 making the layup a sensible option. It should take the 7's and 8's out of the equation though. A 6 is recoverable later, 7 or 8? not so much.
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Post by Mark.A.D » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:20 pm

I must admit I tried the lay up option on the first round and missed twice, after that I grew a pair and went for it the rest of the weekend and got it both twice landing 3 then 2.

I see one of the int ams managed to come away with a 10, anyone know who this was? I'm intruiged.
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Post by rhatton1 » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:29 pm

I'm more intrigued by the Open player that got a nine, how did that happen?

I grew a pair the 2nd round, unfortunately they were a very inaccurate pair and both missed the small island, well one skipped out. and one tried to make it to the rope and just failed.

So, so far, thats 2 adv am and one open player that are that rubbish they couldn't even make the layup.....twice. The standard of British Disc golf is slipping ;-)
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Post by TheGroover » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:47 pm

Mark.A.D wrote: I see one of the int ams managed to come away with a 10, anyone know who this was? I'm intruiged.
It was the Canadian guy.
- He missed the island twice. (1+1, 1+1)
- He missed the approach from the drop zone (1+1)
- I think he then missed it again (1+1)
- He missed the putt. (+1)
- He got it in.

.10.

Ouch!
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Post by Phil Wood » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:48 pm

the guilty party was the one and only Mr Tim Emmott.

not too sure on the details, think it was two missed drives, then short of the island from the DZ, then back to DZ.. up, around and in.

i was part of the double OB 6 club on sat, but went boring for the lay up, lay up, putt 3 on sunday. Like some have commented, the risk wasnt worth it.

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Post by LostMeow » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:49 pm

Are you already including me as one of the people that missed twice? I blame the headwind, which I tried to throw under (ending up short) and then got caught by (ending up long and to the side)... 8)

If you're trying to throw the discs with your balls then you must follow a different technique up at QP.

I know who the open player was...not sure if I should tell tales though!
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Post by Phil Wood » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:52 pm

LostMeow wrote:
I know who the open player was...not sure if I should tell tales though!
just cause he was your caddy!

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Post by rhatton1 » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:54 pm

So, so far thats THREE adv am and one open player that are that rubbish they couldn't even make the layup.....twice

Hadn't counted you Tom!

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Post by Neil M » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:02 pm

In the Int. Am Final i think 3 of us missed the lay-up. 2 dropped short and I tried to go deeper but got gusted away to the right!

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Re: Croydon Cyclone: Hole One...

Post by Jester » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:15 pm

TheGroover wrote:Personally, it proves to me that too many players stand at a tee and think they have the ability to hit a small target without considering the consequences. This data proves that perceived ability is generally misplaced. Nobody forces you to shoot for the island.

Too many people do not consider the cost of missing. If you got, say, a 2, 6, 6 that means you attempted to hit the target 5 times and only managed to get it once. One out of five? Don't come to me saying that you were unlucky. A 20% success rate is not bad luck or punishment for being an Open player, it's bad shot selection.

That same 2,6,6 represents a total of 14 shots for a par of 9. If you had laid up and got 3,3,3 for the tournament, those 5 saved strokes would have probably moved yourself up a place or two. When you stand on a tee, you should be not be getting excited about the potential glory of a 2. You should be thinking about the safest way to maintain a good score card for 3 rounds.

Conclusion? A great hole. It exposes the false belief that we can always make every shot. No course designer is obliged to provide you with a hole that can be automatically deuced.

I'd recommend Croydon keep the hole exactly the same next year, and we'll see what the stats are then to see if anyone learns a lesson from the weekend.


Thank you, Andy, for putting so simply with data to back it up, what I had hoped would be recognised by players with the ability to assess a hole, the conditions and select the right shot: unless you had the skill required to hit a 14m diameter green at 71m, in swirling winds no less, going for the birdie was not the percentage play!

I’m really pleased #1 has caused so much debate amongst players. I designed it to give us British Tour players something we rarely have to worry about on British courses but is much more common on European standard courses: that is ‘a question’. How many of us walked up to the tee of #1 asked ourselves ‘I *know* I can reach the green, but can I *guarantee* (in this swirling wind) that I won’t go off line and incur a penalty?’ Nothing like enough according to the data I fear.

We could all be better players if we could honestly answer: ‘What is the fixation with ‘always going for it’ when it’s clearly not the best shot?’ How is that intelligent play? It might ‘less boring’ but we haven’t a leg to stand on if we are also concerned with getting the best score we can.’ If we give the way we play each hole a little more thought we’d see our round scores coming down without any increase in golfing skill level.

Now I’m no saint when it comes to intelligent play, I went OB4, 2, 3 on #1 this weekend getting the OB4 by putting OB! Being hampered by the bush and into the wind I should have laid up, but I was seduced by the deuce, missed and was rightly punished. On the flip side there have been two incidents in recent Finals where I’ve picked up 1, 2 or even 3 shots on a single hole just through shot selection. I describe these now not for personal gratification but to illustrate the point:

- QP Open Final 2010 playing from 3 to 15: my four fellow finalists all try to drive around the corner, get in trouble and scramble 4s, 5s and maybe even a 6. I lay-up a Roc on the green of 3, then throw the same Roc to the basket for a simple 3.

- Croydon Open Final 2010 playing 11: The shot through the gap from the back tee is possible but very tough and if you hit either side you’re dropping one if not two shots. I laid up a Roc short of the gap and was asked ‘Does your husband play?’ Very amusing! I however approached and putted for a 3 while 5’s were being carded by those who had tried and failed to get through the gap. (No-one could ask about the status of their husband however and that’s surely what’s important…) (side note – great drive through the gap from James in the final to show another way of carding a 3)


Final thought on #1 - I really hope each of us can take a step back and look at the design as something that if we learn to play within the level of skill we have, not only will we each pick up shots on many other players who can’t learn this, but our general game will improve. For the lay-uppers being able to hit a 20mx40m area that’s only 40m to the centre point should always be possible. Then hitting a 14m diameter circle from 35m is a great skill to work on and will save you shots on any hole. For the go for it players, hitting a 14m diameter circle from 71m is a definite stroke saver.
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Post by Steve » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:30 pm

I say make the layup hole smaller. Seriously. :)
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Post by Jester » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:31 pm

Steve wrote:I say make the layup hole smaller. Seriously. :)
Do you mean make the hole shorter or the lay-up island smaller?
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Post by Steve » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:33 pm

layup island smaller mate. If people can't hit that, they need to go back to school...:)
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Post by rhatton1 » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:40 pm

There's a bit of me that agrees with Steve.

I know I should hit it everytime, if there was a basket or person there I would. It's not hard. Yet I didn't. I felt like I should be punished and punished severley for that.
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